If a big favorite lost their previous game, the trend increases even more to 30-15-1 (66.7%) against the spread. *Never thought I’d use that word again after high school.īut wait, there’s more! Large favorites are almost always one of the league's top teams, and top teams rarely lose two games in a row. ![]() Conclusion: Past results over the past five years support our hypothesis of double-digit favorites covering at a higher rate! That’s a 57.5% win rate if you blindly bet these big spreads. Is this hypothesis* correct? After crunching the numbers, double digit favorites are an astounding 69-51-1 against the spread. This would make it reasonable to think that double-digit favorites cover more often with the surge of offense in the NFL. When a good team is playing a bad team, thus creating a large point spread, the good team is likely to score most if not all of these additional points. And remember, two teams play in each game, so scoring is actually up four points total per game. That’s a full two points for each team, which may not seem like much but is almost a 10% increase. Since 2012, the league average is 22.7 points per game according to Pro Football Reference. From 1989-2011 (remember, our ATS line history started in 1989), the league average score for each team was 20.7 points per game. But before I do, realize that this isn’t just an arbitrary search just to prove a point – scoring in the league has noticeably increased since the 2012 season. Let’s narrow our search more by just looking at the past five years. The trend is improving though, so bear with me. By flat betting one unit on every double-digit favorite since 2007, you would have won a whopping 3.10 units! Not exactly a desirable return on investment (0.09% ROI for my fellow nerds). By running the numbers on just the past ten years, the results improve and we get: 167-149-3 (52.8%). That’s almost 30 years of data, and things have changed quite a bit in both the NFL and sports betting. Knowing this, we should avoid these big favorites, right? For those rookies out there, we need at least a 52.38% win rate to break even with the customary -110 odds on spreads. Since the 1989 season (as far back as I can go), favorites of ten points or more are 418-430-16 against the spread which gives us a 49.3% win rate. After all, we’re always told to avoid the big favorites the public loves, right? Some may want to call these lines trap games (which don’t exist, I’ll dive into that in a future post), but what does history actually tell us? ![]() With this in mind, what do we do with these big favorites? There’s a common misconception among sports bettors that betting double digit favorites, especially in the NFL, is a losing proposition. This week, we’ve flipped the script and will likely finish with five games closing at double-digit favorites. Last week, we saw an incredibly tight card with 11 of 14 games closing with a three-point spread or less and none getting higher than eight points. We’re already in Week 6 of the NFL season believe it or not.
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![]() This album release performance is his first of many expressions of gratitude to the greater KC community of artists, musicians, teachers, friends, and family who helped shape and raise him. Morgan Faw was raised musically in Kansas City. With a special edition of the famous “Blue Monday Jam Session” co-hosted by Houston Smith and Morgan Faw. (*Special Guest Appearance by: Bobby Watson) The Blue Roomįirst Set: “It Takes a Village” CD Release Concert Featuring: Morgan Faw and The Flame It Takes a Village – CD Release Performance featuring Morgan Faw and The Flame The Mutual Musicians Foundation was listed on the Kansas City Register of Historic Places on July 24, 1980. A living museum, the Foundation preserves and develops Kansas City’s rich musical heritage.Įxplore the online exhibit at UMKC’s LaBudde Special Collections “ Musician’s Local 627.” supports the Mutual Musicians Foundation and its programs. The Foundation also serves as a rehearsal space for members, a classroom for visiting students, and a place for private parties. A National Historic Landmark, the building is also entered in the National Register of Historic Places and the Kansas City Landmarks Commission Register.Īs they have since 1930, musicians gather at the Foundation Friday and Saturday nights after midnight to jam into the early morning hours. In 1979, the Foundation was prominently featured in Bruce Ricker’s film, The Last of the Blue Devils. The Mutual Musicians Foundation, Inc., originally incorporated to manage the building and assets of Local 627, continued operating the building as a social club for musicians and fans after the merger with Local 34 in 1970. Today, the tradition jams on at the Mutual Musicians Foundation, located on the former site of Local 627 at 1823 Highland Ave., in the heart of the historic 18th and Vine District. The jazz style pioneered and fostered by the members of Local 627 developed along original lines influenced by, yet unique from, the traditions of New Orleans, Chicago, and New York. 627, one of a handful of African-American musicians’ unions affiliated with the American Federation of Musicians.Įstablished in 1917, Local 627, then known as the “Colored Musicians Union,” operated as a social center, a clearinghouse for engagements, and a vehicle for grievances against unfair practices by booking agents and band leaders. Kansas City, one of the principal cradles of jazz along with New York, New Orleans, and Chicago, bred a number of nationally significant big bands and a legion of talented soloists, who revolutionized jazz in America. Late night jam session at the Mutual Musicians Foundation! MUTUAL MUSICIANS FOUNDATION ![]() If you’re still not sure if Nectar is the right choice for you, here are a couple of other recommendations that may be a better fit. Motion transfer levels are also significantly lower than the average which is certainly the benefit of the classic memory foam feel for Nectar. Performance factors that scored below average include cooling, response time, edge support, and sex. Nectar comparison takes a look at two all-foam mattresses one with a support system with zoned firmness for added versatility and another built to provide exceptional pressure relief and a forever warranty. ![]() FactorĢ9% have lifetime warranties, average of other 71% of mattresses is 14 years Compared to the average memory foam mattress, the Nectar Original is priced over 50% less. The Nectar Original mattress has a performance score that is pretty significantly lower than average with a price tag that is also lower than average (as expected). Adding 2″ of extra comfort material also improved the feeling for a wider variety of sleepers, ensuring that even heavyweight sleepers feel well-supported and comfortable. It also increased the mattress thickness from 10″ up to 12″. Poly foam improves response time, breathability, and pressure relief. Today, the Nectar mattress is mostly the same as the original version, but it adds the 2.0″ middle layer of poly foam. Average-weight or heavyweight sleepers: The Nectar has plenty more support if you feel like you need more than what the Casper can offer. It was a 10″ mattress that was made up of a 3.0″ gel memory foam comfort layer and a 7″ support foam layer. The Nectar mattress was first launched in 2017 as traditional memory foam. As heavier sleepers fully engage through the top comfort layers, this bottom layer foam is designed to provide support and pressure relief. Despite the use of poly foam, this is still a pretty traditional memory foam mattress, as we’ve mentioned above. It takes several seconds to form to the shape of your body, and will take several seconds each time you change positions.īoth of these layers work together to provide comfort, support and contribute to the overall feel of the mattress. The Nectar offers high hug, high contour, high sinkage, slow response, low bounce, low motion. Generally, side sleepers benefit from the extra contour, but this isn’t always true for back and stomach sleepers.įor heavier-weight sleepers, you may find that this level of contour does not provide enough for support. Sleeper WeightĮven though the Nectar is around a 6.5 out of 10 on the firmness scale, the memory foam also plays a big role.Ĭheck the images above of the sinkage and contour when lying on my side on the edge. When it comes to who will find this mattress comfortable, generally speaking, most people will fit in that category, based on firmness alone.īut I do think that it’s important to also look at the mattress materials. I had a skin graft operation, where they put half my right thigh in my face. Niki, can you confirm to us exactly which procedures you've had and the expectations for your recovery? The only guy to have his face burnt off and it be an improvement. What's the point of having a million cups and medals and planes if you don't have any fun? How is that winning? ![]() And now, we're both champions of the world. A wise man gets more from his enemies than a fool from his friends.' And you know what? He was right. Lauda, may I offer a piece of advice? Stop thinking of it as a curse to have been given an enemy in life. 'I hate that guy.' And then one day, the doctor came and said, 'Mr. And while doing it, I was watching television. You know, in hospital, the toughest part of my treatment was the vacuum. ![]() The minute you do that, you kill what's good about this. No, no, no, Niki, don't bring the percentages into this. ![]() I mean, hell, isn't that we're in this for? To stare death in the face, and to cheat it? Come on, there's nobility in that. I was prepared to die to beat you that day. And I put my life on the line, and I saw it through. To prove to all the people who will always say you just won it because.īecause of what? Because of your accident? Niki, is that other people, or is that you? I won, okay? On the all-important day, when it came down to it, we raced on equal terms, equally good cars. What, are you nuts? I didn't just win the biggest thing in my life so I could get right back to work. ![]() Download our Ocean Waves Live Wallpaper right now and make your smartphone come to life – you don't have to look at marine "aquarium fish"! Swimming in the ocean or under the sea aquarium reveals deep blue sea life! Don't waste your chance to meet tropical fish like Clownfish, catfish or Betta fish! Swim with sea turtles, tortoise and enjoy crystal clear water waves with our deep sea animated screensavers! 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Treat your phone with the best gifs on the market – and welcome to underwater kingdom! ![]() Season four's synopsis explained, "Two years after the brutal murder of Grace turned their lives upside down, the Stone family is in shambles as a devastated Ben continues to mourn his wife and search for his kidnapped daughter, Eden. The supernatural drama follows a group of passengers whose plane lands after years of being lost, who must try and reintegrate into society. The first 10 episodes of the series dropped on the streaming service on 4th November, with the second batch of episodes (so season 4 part 2) landing today. But what actually happened in the final episodes?ĭespite NBC cancelling Manifest after three seasons, the streaming service revealed they had ordered a fourth and final instalment of the show back in 2021. Manifest season 4 part 2 just dropped on Netflix, and fans are going to need the whole weekend to recover. ![]() As it turns out, Anna’s Calling of the Ramao cemetery was actually Eden’s.Wow. Anna Ross has been harboring Angelina and Eden in her basement.Saanvi discovers she can hear Captain Daly calling for help from Eureka in the Black Box and surmises the box might have more to say to them.He uses his powers on Henry Kim, and the pain nearly overtakes him. Zeke uses his empath powers to work as a counselor and take on his patients’ pain.He admits to telling Angelina where the key to the house was, following his Calling. When Cal returns and presents his new form to the family, Olive lashes out at him and blames him for Angelina killing Grace and kidnapping Eden.The Death Date is a year and a half away.When he starts crying out, they deduce he’s looking for Cal, and that leads them to the Black Box in the freighter. They identify him as 828 passenger Henry Kim, believed to have been killed by the Singaporean government two years prior, as hinted at in the opening scene of Henry being tested on then later leaving the facility to cherry blossoms. She brings him to Vance and Saanvi, who have set up a new base camp operations for the Lifeboat. Michaela follows a cherry blossom Calling to a freighter, where she finds a stowaway with “Stone 828” engraved on his arm. ![]() The state legally declares Eden deceased, but Ben follows the Calling with Anna, where he thinks he’s found Eden when he hears a child yelling “Daddy!” However, it’s a young boy whose father is drowning in a nearby stream. Ben concedes and allows Cal (under the guise of Gabriel) follow his Calling to Anna Ross’ house, which leads them to a cemetery in Ramapo. He pulls away from the family, especially Cal, and won’t allow his son (posing as cousin Gabriel) to leave the house. Two years after Grace’s death and Eden’s kidnapping, Ben has allowed the grief and determination consume him. Buckle up! Manifest season 4 episode 1 recap: Touch-and-Go We’re diving into each of season 4 part 1’s 10 episodes. Read along as you watch, or bookmark so you can read for clarity following your binge-watch. In the following episode guide, we’re breaking down major SPOILERS from the new episodes of Manifest. These 10 episodes are truly the building blocks leading to the culmination of deep and thoughtful storytelling.Ĭlick here to read the Manifest season 4 part 2 recap guide! Manifest season 4 part 1 spoilers and recap guide The run-up to the final episodes proves an electrifying and satisfying binge-watch for long-time Manifesters who joined the vocal chorus that helped saved Manifest from its cancellation layover. ![]() Following Grace’s murder and Eden’s kidnapping, both at the hands of Angelina, an aged-up Cal returns from his mysterious disappearance. In Manifest season 4 part 1, we meet back up with the Stone family two years after the tragic and unexpected events of the season 3 finale. New episodes have landed on Netflix, and it’s exactly what fans have been waiting for. It’s time for takeoff, Manifesters! As bittersweet as it might be, the release of Manifest season 4 part 1 kicks off the beginning of the final season. Josh Dallas as Ben Stone, Josh Dallas as Ben Stone in Manifest Season 04. Luna Blaise as Olive Stone, Luna Blaise as Olive Stone in Manifest Season 04. Ty Doran as Cal Stone (as teen), Ty Doran as Cal Stone (as teen) in Manifest Season 04. Melissa Roxburgh as Michaela Stone, Melissa Roxburgh as Michaela Stone in Manifest Season 04. (L to R) Matt Long as Zeke Landon, Matt Long as Zeke Landon in Manifest Season 04. ![]() To quantify the related emissions, land use change reconstructions are needed, which are used to drive either bookkeeping or Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, e.g. LUCC-induced carbon (C) emission is one of the most uncertain terms in the global C budget 2, 3, and is thought to be responsible for approximately 25% of the historical atmospheric increase in CO 2 concentration 4. Land-use and cover-change (LUCC) resulting from anthropogenic activities are nearly ubiquitous across Earth’s surface, impacting biogeochemical cycles, and regional and global climate 1. ![]() This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China’s reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Nature Communications volume 13, Article number: 5374 ( 2022)Ĭarbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Forest expansion dominates China’s land carbon sink since 1980 ![]() From that moment on, they were in a band. Larson had visited Buist's house to discuss their impending project, during which time Larson had played a song on Buist's guitar that she hadn't played for anyone prior to their meeting. Savannah and I were the only two people who raised our hands. Our orchestra instructor asked for volunteers to play an event. We didn't really start interacting with each other until I was 15 and Savannah was 16. In an interview with Post Independent, Larson described the formation of the band: In 2012, they auditioned for and won a spot in the first-ever singer-songwriter major at the renowned Interlochen Center for the Arts high school, where they formally created The Accidentals. Larson recalled that a key encounter that inspired her and Buist to pursue a professional music career was when they attended a school workshop by the Moxie Strings, which was the first time they had seen a female duo playing electrified orchestral instruments in a popular style. Larson, then 15, was a freshman cello player, and Buist, then 16, was a sophomore who played violin, and they teamed up for a class orchestra project. ![]() Larson and Buist met as young musicians in 2011 at their public high school, Traverse City West in Traverse City, Michigan. History 2011–2012: Beginnings and Tangled Red and Blue Now based in Nashville, Tennessee, they also lead music workshops at schools across the US. The band signed with a major label by the time the members were around age 21, but they later returned to releasing their recordings independently. ![]() Dause departed in March 2023 and was replaced by Katelynn Corll. They have released six full-length albums, three EPs, and two live albums.īuist and Larson grew up in musical families, released their first two albums while in high school, hired percussionist Michael Dause in 2014, and began touring nationally. The group has featured an eclectic blend of indie folk, pop, bluegrass, rock, classical, and other genres. The Accidentals are an American band, formed in Traverse City, Michigan in 2012 by singer-songwriters and multi-instrumentalists Sav Buist and Katie Larson. Professional customer service will provide you with a satisfactory solution within 12 hours. If there is any problem, please contact us. 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Excellent Features: - Powerful motor and sharp blade allow for quick and easy cutting without getting stuck in the hair Come with 4 accessories guide combs: (1.5mm/2mm/3mm/4mm), help you trim your hair to the desired hairstyle, friendly for beginners.To learn more about how and for what purposes Amazon uses personal information (such as Amazon Store order history), please visit our Privacy Notice. You can change your choices at any time by visiting Cookie Preferences, as described in the Cookie Notice. Click ‘Customise Cookies’ to decline these cookies, make more detailed choices, or learn more. ![]() Third parties use cookies for their purposes of displaying and measuring personalised ads, generating audience insights, and developing and improving products. This includes using first- and third-party cookies, which store or access standard device information such as a unique identifier. : Electric Hair Clippers 1-48 of over 3,000 results for 'electric hair clippers' Results Best Seller Wahl Color Pro Cordless Rechargeable Hair Clipper & Trimmer Easy Color-Coded Guide Combs - for Men, Women, & Children Model 9649P 1 Count (Pack of 1) 67,826 3K+ bought in past week 3999 (39. ![]() Not only will this grooming tool last for hours, but the ceramic titanium blades are self-sharpening for a super clean cut without irritation. If you agree, we’ll also use cookies to complement your shopping experience across the Amazon stores as described in our Cookie Notice. The Hatteker Hair Trimmer Pro sports an incredible 2.5 hours of run-time after a 2-hour charge, is charged via USB, and offers a completely waterproof body. We also use these cookies to understand how customers use our services (for example, by measuring site visits) so we can make improvements. We use cookies and similar tools that are necessary to enable you to make purchases, to enhance your shopping experiences and to provide our services, as detailed in our Cookie Notice. ![]() Import Homemade DVD to iMovie 09 Import Homemade DVD to iMovie 11 Import Commercial DVD to iMovie 09/11 Import Homemade DVD to iMovie 09įor homemade DVD with no copy & region code protection, you can directly import them into iMovie 09 or its previous version by using the disk utility and get a new image of the DVD. ↳ OS X El Capitan 10.11 ↳ OS X Yosemite 10.10 ↳ OS X Mavericks 10.9 ↳ OS X Mountain Lion 10.8 & Lion 10.7 ↳ iOS & iPadOS ↳ watchOS, tvOS, audioOS ↳ Software ↳ Programmazione ↳ Server ↳ Cloud storage ↳ Linux su Mac iMaccanici Assistenza Hardware ↳ MacBook, iMac, Mac Pro, MacMini ↳ iPhone, iPod, iPad.How to Rip commercial DVDs for iMovie Importing and Editing on El Capitan. The original installer's disk image (QuickTimeMPEG2.dmg) is required. Use it to install the MPEG-2 Playback Component in Lion. Import Homemade or Commercial DVD to iMovie on Mac El Capitan May 04.Thank you Squared5 for this constant in my life!:).EDIT: I neglected to mention something important. I use it often when capturing old analog sources via a DV converter device, to trim the final clips and re-join them. I'm using MPEG Streamclip 1.9.3b8 on OSX 10.11.1 (El Capitan) and it works perfectly. Select the most recent release name for your operating system. Home » patching » Unix » Download the patches for HP unix server? Select HP-UX patch bundles. Sword of the divine: each second, the wearer has a chance to gain 100% crit chance. ![]() Mentioned those are extremely rare and two of them combines into force of nature which is essentially the most broken item in the game. Like and Subscribe for more! R/TeamfightTactics: This is a subreddit devoted to League of Legends: Teamfight Tactics. I get a 3 star Varus that has some massive ults. 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